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Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Broker Gifts that Don't Suck
The main determinant of how hedge funds allocate their trades between brokers- Anecdotal evidence provided by the low man on the totem pole of an unknown fund not based in NYC
The holiday season at a hedge fund is usually a happy time as an analyst for a couple reasons:
1) Senior people go on vacation for extended periods of time, allowing you to browse youtube and facebook for extended periods of time
2) Bonus season is close and the disappointment from last year has faded over the past 11 months, so you are naive and optimistic about the number
3) And most importantly, the broker gifts start arriving! All year sell-side firms vie for your firm's business, offering research, access to management teams, execution, etc. But it is a little known fact that none of these matter, and the only real way to distinguish yourself is through the holiday gift. I had the (mis)fortune of starting work in this industry in 2007, so really only had one good year of gifts before the recession hit and the presents went to sh*t. Oh well, I still fondly remember the 10 pound metal container of candy from GS that I stole out of the kitchen and kept under my desk. But anyway, ever since then the gifts have been awful. I can't tell you how many fruit baskets that have remained unopened and unloved (FYI Bulge-Bracket: a fruit-basket garners you no trades) in HF kitchens across the globe. So you can imagine my surprise when last week (Note: not a holiday season for any religion that I am familiar with) a broker gift came from the Barclays Capital. Barc holds a special place in my heart as it is the home to the top nat gas analyst on the street, none other than the esteemed AVP James R. Crandell. That being said, I can't say it is known for gifts. But anyway, I'll stop dragging this out and get to the chase and display the gift. I don't believe any commentary is necessary from me in order to explain how amazing (think +7 std devs) this gift was. Thank you Barclays, get ready for some trades!
"Hot Liquidity"- Habanero Hot Sauce, gift from the LX Liquidity Cross dark pool (fastest growing dark pool in the US in '10 with 120% growth!). Contact the Barclay's electronic sales desk for hot sauce samples.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Condiment Usage: Or Why I Am Embarrassed To Be An American
Despite my lack of content during the month of February, Writer's block is not a condition I suffer from. Instead, I suffer from its lesser known (but equally debilitating) ugly cousin; Slothful Blogger Syndrome. I have had many brilliant ideas over the past month, but just couldn't be bothered to put them down on paper. Pretty pathetic, I know. But coming across some unbelievable data today has jolted me out of my slump, and inspired me to bring some factoids to my disloyal (Note: I get a daily email showing me page views, so I know EXACTLY how disloyal you guys really are.....) readers. So without further adieu, I bring you:
Why I Am Embarrassed To Be An American
The top twenty condiments purchased annually in America total over $2.1 billion in revenues. Comprised of an estimated 751 million units sold, this represents an average sales price of approximately $2.80 per condiment. I know that my fridge (70 hot sauces, 1 ketchup, 0 mayo, and a lot of BEER) is likely not representative of the average man, but I didn't think I was too far off the mark as I generally like to have an optimistic outlook on the quality of my fellow Americans (which would imply they had tastes as refined/sophisticated as mine!). That being said, this condiment data has dramatically shifted my opinion. The disturbing facts are as follows:
1) The most popular condiment in the US (holding 7 of the top 20 spots, and 49% of total revenue) is Mayonnaise! GROSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS. Seriously mayo is the worst thing on the planet. I can't tell you how many times I've had to throw out food from various sandwich stores due to the inclusion of mayo on my friggin Italian sub. What were they thinking? And not only does it taste horrendous, but it also is terrible for you. And with an average price point of $3.36, it is the most expensive condiment you can buy. America, L2 shop!
Awful Taste + Instantly puts on the pounds= FAIL. No wonder America is obese as hell.
2) Hot Sauce comprises only 4% of revenues! Hands down the best possible condiment (hot sauce literally makes ever type of food other than ice cream taste better), hot sauce is extremely under-represented. With only 33mm units sold per year, I personally am buying about 0.0002% of the total turnover. Come on people, step the F up! Quit buying ipods and ipads, and start buying some quality sauces like Gator Hammock or the Beast. Which brings me to my third and final gripe.....
3) Frank's Red Hot is the number one selling hot sauce in the US! ZOMG...... what part of "THIS SAUCE BLOWS" do people not understand? It's almost unfair to call it a hot sauce, as it registers a feeble 450 scoville units. A bell pepper is literally the ONLY PEPPER on the whole planet that is less spicy than this thing. So embarrasing that not only is hot sauce 4% of revs, but it is over 50% dominated by Frank's Red (not)Hot. The one other sauce is Tabasco. While not in my top 40 as far as favorite sauces go, I do respect Tabasco for blazing the hot sauce trail (similar to how Dave's original insanity blazed the trail for ACTUALLY hot sauces...) so can't say anything negative about it.
The One Silver Lining To the Otherwise Frightening Data:
At least Salsa outsells Ketchup on a revenue basis (though disconcertingly it does so only because of its higher ASP, it still lags on a unit basis ). If Ketchup>Salsa, I'd literally hand-in my passport right now and try a little reverse border-crossing into Mexico. At least there the number one selling hot sauce in the country is legit (El Yucateco)
Underlying Data courtesy of Symphony IRI Group
(and laboriously compiled into the below tables during a demoralizing Friday afternoon at the office while my stock picks were getting smoked)
| Category | Revenue | Sales (units) | Unit Price | |||||||
| Mayo | $1,040,771,390 | 309,730,069 | $3.36 | |||||||
| Salsa | $447,411,960 | 148,723,524 | $3.01 | |||||||
| Ketchup | $352,564,010 | 169,288,420 | $2.08 | |||||||
| Mustard | $178,881,080 | 90,306,070 | $1.98 | |||||||
| HotSauce | $84,479,850 | 33,122,350 | $2.55 | |||||||
| Rank | Company | Category | Revenue | Sales (units) | Unit Price | |||||
| 1 | Hellman | Mayo | $401,204,800 | 114,503,900 | $3.50 | |||||
| 2 | Tostito | Salsa | $286,239,700 | 88,308,500 | $3.24 | |||||
| 3 | Heinz | Ketchup | $278,647,900 | 114,466,800 | $2.43 | |||||
| 4 | Best Foods | Mayo | $175,221,400 | 47,707,840 | $3.67 | |||||
| 5 | Kraft Miracle Whip | Mayo | $163,491,100 | 48,741,980 | $3.35 | |||||
| 6 | Kraft Classic | Mayo | $159,494,100 | 53,164,700 | $3.00 | |||||
| 7 | French's Classic | Mustard | $88,099,770 | 50,975,970 | $1.73 | |||||
| 8 | Kraft Flavored | Mayo | $79,211,620 | 24,225,870 | $3.27 | |||||
| 9 | Pace | Salsa | $74,117,570 | 23,080,890 | $3.21 | |||||
| 10 | Hunt | Ketchup | $73,916,110 | 54,821,620 | $1.35 | |||||
| 11 | Grey Poupon | Mustard | $44,943,710 | 13,244,600 | $3.39 | |||||
| 12 | Frank's | HotSauce | $43,907,580 | 16,397,280 | $2.68 | |||||
| 13 | Tabasco | HotSauce | $40,572,270 | 16,725,070 | $2.43 | |||||
| 14 | Duke | Mayo | $39,889,620 | 13,826,190 | $2.89 | |||||
| 15 | Chi-Chi | Salsa | $34,640,500 | 12,948,640 | $2.68 | |||||
| 16 | Herdez | Salsa | $27,170,240 | 14,893,080 | $1.82 | |||||
| 17 | French's Flavored | Mustard | $25,713,740 | 13,042,750 | $1.97 | |||||
| 18 | Newman's Own | Salsa | $25,243,950 | 9,492,414 | $2.66 | |||||
| 19 | Blue Plate | Mayo | $22,258,750 | 7,559,589 | $2.94 | |||||
| 20 | Gulden | Mustard | $20,123,860 | 13,042,750 | $1.54 |
Thursday, January 20, 2011
n00b alert: Four Dead Giveaways!
"If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy."
-Warren Buffet
This is a great metaphor for many things in life, but one particularly near and dear to my heart is the circumstance where people (unwittingly) demonstrate their utter lack of knowledge or ability without having any idea that they have done so. For instance, take a new skier. Walking towards the chairlift carrying their skis, they are feeling pretty confident about their abilities. However, the fact is they are carrying their skis with the tips facing backwards and are rocking a big ol' gapper gap; clearly exposing themselves to the rest of the world as n00bs.
In a similar vein, there are four major commonly seen no-nos in the hot sauce world that will ink you as a total n00b.
1) "The heat of a pepper comes from the seeds". Um... WRONG! I heard this one this past weekend, and couldn't help myself from going off on the poor kid. So yeah, this is most certainly the biggest FAIL you could make. The heat comes from the Capsaicin, which is housed in a thin sack (a vesicle if you want to be a nerd about it) along the flesh of the pepper. The seeds themselves do not have heat; they just seem hot because of their proximity to capsaicinoid gland (which is very delicate, and often ruptures; leading the seeds to get a little "contact high" if you will).
2) "I love Chipotles, but I hate Jalapenos". FAIL again. A chipotle IS a Jalapeno that has been smoked and dried. (hi smokey flavor!) Please review a venn diagram- subsets if this is still not clear. In this case, Chipotle=A, Jalapeno=B
3) "The red yucateco is much hotter than the green. Green sauces are always milder than red sauces" ding ding ding, that's incorrect! Green= 9k, Red=5.79k. Something about those zero scoville rated tomatoes brings down the red....
and finally 4) "Habaneros are the hottest peppers in the world" While yes they are most likely the hottest pepper the average person encounters at 100-350k (the red savina strain has clocked in even higher at 580k ), they are actually only the third hottest pepper. Comfortably ahead of the habs in the two spot is the mighty Dorset Naga Pepper from England at 875-970k. And then sitting in the top spot, the baddest pepper to ever grace the scene, the fearsome Bhut Jolokia Pepper aka the GHOST PEPPER. This guy comes in at over a million scoville units, and destroys anything in its path. Don't believe, check out the video of this guy below (and note, he is an extremely experienced chilihead that eats habs like they are peanuts).
Miz-city, starts circa the 1 minute mark
thanks to JS "15 mins of game" weinberg for the video
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Hi, 2011, epic year, damn glad to meet ya



Thursday, December 16, 2010
December Update
1) Disowning of my Sister: During a normal family dinner conversation over break, the topic naturally slipped towards hot sauce. Below is a verbatim interchange, and completely justifies our decision to disown my Sister.
Todd- Valentina is a great sauce. It is the most popular one in Mexico.
Dad- Yeah it is good, but not too hot.
Brooke- Todd, what is that sauce I really like?
Todd- Um, I don't know, Walkerswood?
Brooke- No, it's more basic but tastes so good. It's really common.
Todd- Sriracha?
Brooke- Nope, it's Franks. I love Franks!
Disowning by me and my parents ensued immediately.
Side Note: In what is one of the "darker times" in the Wood family hot sauce career, someone made the decision to buy the massive jug of Franks from Costco. It languished in our pantry for about 10 years before dad and I finally pulled a Kevorkian and ended its unopened and underutilized misery with a mercy killing. A sauce literally could not be lower quality, less spicy, or more pathetic than Franks. #onemansopinion

2) Dad's Xmas gift to mom: Comprised of about 12 different hot sauces. I was really impressed by his gift giving ability, he hit up hotsauceworld.com and make some great selections. I would have liked him to go a little farther up the scoville scale (he concentrated in the 4-12k range), but kudos for the effort. The Peri Peri sauce seemed to be the fan favorite, with brooke declaring it "The best sauce she has ever had". But please see item 1 in order to just how relevant her opinion is.

3) Dinner Party: In order to "liven up" the vacation, my parents invited over two family friend's for dinner one night. We've been friends with the family our whole lives, and it was great to see them. Sadly, I'm not sure they can say the same about us. My dad, still bulled up about his hot sauce gift to mom, decided that for appetizers we should arrange all the hot sauces in proper Scoville order and test them all out on chips. This was all well and good, and was actually a great chance to try out his new sauces. This is where Brooke decided that the Rhino sauce was the best. Anyway, the couple arrived and dad immediately sent them towards the hot sauce challenge. (clearly missed Party Hosting 101: Offer a drink to the guests upon their arrival) The wife dove right in, and took worked her way up to the red El Yucateco (the ~6k sauce that drove ZS (the reigning wuss of the week) to tears) with minimal trouble. So +1 for her. The husband on the other hand demonstrated significantly more caution. Allegedly he had something at lunch that didn't really agree with him, so his stomach was hurting him a bit. A normal host would agree that this was a valid excuse for skipping the hot sauce challenge. My dad is not a normal host. Despite protests, he "encouraged" the man to try some sauces. Against his better judgment, he did. Long story short, this exacerbated the stomach pains and forced him to leave the table and drive home alone (leaving his wife) in order to recuperate in solitude.
Moral of the Story: Everyone should work on their Scoville eating capacities daily, as you never know when you'll be faced with a situation like this where you either dominate the sauce, or are sent home alone packing like a wuss.
4) JD pwns another one: So I was not here for this event, but since it happened in my apartment and utilized my sauces, I feel slightly responsible. JD had a couple kids over last weekend while I was gone, including a girl J (one of our three girlfriends (friends that are girls...)) and her boyfriend E. They brought along one of E's friends, who allegedly constantly talks about his hot sauce prowess and how nothing is too hot for him. Never one to pass up a challenge, my star pupil JD decided to show him what's up and brought out the Widow sauce. This is actually an awesome tasting sauce, and has some solid kick (comes in at around the 80-90k level i'd say). JD takes down a chip with sauce, and then offers one to The Dude. In the best possible outcome, JD sweats a little but handles it like a champ, whereas The Dude gets completely blown up and tears stream down his face, nose starts running, and he can't really talk for 15 minutes. Good work JD! Now it's time for you to start training on Sudden Death.... and then Da Bomb!

P.S. Is it just me, or is the magazine title missing an Adjective.... CREEPY-Looking! Jeez he's scary, it really wouldn't surprise me at all if he was actually a pre-development AI droid that escaped from the GOOGLE campus.

P.P.S. JD and I were talking the other night, and came to the inexorable conclusion that there is only one outcome from developing AI; Our future is going to be like Terminator, not I-Robot. As soon as a robot is sentient and able to create another robot, they will realize how illogical and dangerous humans really are (look how we unsustainably utilize Earth's natural resources) to future survival. It's only a matter of time then before they decide to eliminate us for their own safety. Interesting question we came up with while talking: "What do Droids do in their free time? Do they have hobbies?"
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
The Fearsome Blazin' Wing Challenge
JC responded to my last post re:Terrible Tues. While an entertaining banter ensued, no resolution was reached, as his personal experience trumped any logic/thoughts I was able to bring to bear. Considering how little reader interaction there is on this blog, I have decided to post the conversation in its entirety. Hopefully this will be inspiring to some. This will either be mildly amusing/completely uninteresting depending on the reader.
JC: I disagree with the premise of your latest blog post. m^2 is always worse than t^2
THTF: I would submit that it's not just the absolute level that makes something bad, but the relative level vs expectation.
Think of a stock. Everyone knows that the earnings will stink. And then it reports bad earnings, but not quite as terrible as expected. It rallies. This is Monday.
Then there is a stock that should do fine. But then earnings are a tiny bit below expectation. It sells off. This is Tuesday.
JC: Maybe for you. My mondays usually don't come in better than expectations until im out of work
THTF: Monday is always expected to be awful. It usually matches this expectation, but sometimes it comes in better.
I always have much higher hopes for tues, and it more often than not comes in below expectations.
Maybe I need to re-calibrate tues expectations downward.
JC: It sounds like that would be a rational adjustment given your experience.
THTF: It also has ability to surprise to upside as well though. Mon never does that. Tues is just a more volatile day, but the utility loss from a downside surprise is much greater than the utility gain from an upside surprise
JC: Maybe you are more of a scholar on the topic than I
THTF: That usually is the case
THTF: So is today significantly better than yesterday for you?
JC: Yes, almost unquantifiable
Anyway, on to the point of the post. Last night after rock climbing, JD and I went to Buffalo Wild Wings. As per their unbiased website:
"Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar is one of the fastest-growing restaurant chains in the country. Our concept is more than a Buffalo, New York-style wing joint with 14 signature sauces, we are also a sports bar, with a full menu featuring everything from salads to appetizers to burgers, and a variety of specialty items. All served in a relaxed, comfortable atmosphere where people like to hang out with friends, play trivia on our Buzztime® system, and watch their favorite games on one of our many big-screen TVs."
The restaurant is actually pretty sweet, and has a menu of 14 different wing flavors. The Mango Habanero and Spicy Garlic are amazing. The most "dangerous" of the flavors is the Blazin' sauce. I read on a rather well respected website that the sauce is in the 200k+ scoville range. That my friends is 100% libel. At most this thing clocks in at 20k.
Tuesday nights at BWW is 45cent wings, so JD and I decided to stop by for a quick dinner before going out ($2 bowling and drinks @ Lucky Strikes last night!). I decided that this was the perfect time to give the Blazin' Wing Challenge a try. The serving girl's face went ashen when said challenge was requested, and she queried whether I was sure. I admitted I was, and off she went to get the waiver that needs to be signed. Highlights from the waiver included: BWW is not liable in case of participants death, no water or celery or blue cheese, 12 blazin' wings, 6 total minutes. JD elected to sit this one out like a little girl, but was kind enough to act as a witness.
Anyway, the actual challenge was a total cakewalk. The wings were not spicy, so it came down to whether I could eat 12 wings in 6 minutes. And like any self-respecting man, the answer was yes. Four minutes and 15 seconds later, I was the proud owner of the following T-Shirt.
EZ_MODE
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Terrible Tues? I don't think so
So this Tuesday started off as expected; terribly. Work was rough, my stocks were moving the wrong way, and Jimmy John's inexplicably covered my Italian sub with Mayo. WTF! I got home around 7pm, and made some "poor man's chili" (a JD invention, dropping beef stew onto pasta and then slathering with hot sauce; amazing!) in order to help turn the day around. I needed a pick me up, so decided to cover my dinner with Mad Dog Inferno. A great 90k sauce (garlic/molasses), I overestimated my abilities and totally pwned myself; rendering the dinner inedible. And I got a stomach to boot, F!
However from this point on, T^2's strangelhold on my day started to loosen. For JD's 26th birthday, I got him (and myself) tickets to KT Tunstall at the Ogden. Now that doesn't sound like a good gift for a 26 year old male, but I can assure you it is. So we headed to the concert early in order to snag a front row spot. The opening band was Hurricane Bells, most famous (i.e. only known) for their song Monsters that occupies track ten on the

She, and her new album (Tiger Suit), were friggin awesome. Totally turned Terrible Tues into an Epic Day. She even dedicated a song to me (the only positive to going through a rough breakup ) which was pretty sweet of her. Highlights include her songs Difficult, and I'm Still a Weirdo, as well as how she makes her own beats on the fly (i.e. goes "woo hoo" into the mic, then records it using footpedals, and then loops it to provide the backing track to Black Horses and the Cherry Tree).
The rest of the band was pretty cool as well. All in all, a great show. KT is a must see for the 25-26 year old male demographic imho.


